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- Hong Kong's famous economist - Lang
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may occur in the next 2-10 years, you can try to doubt this figure, but it is bound to happen, not alarmist. But it does happen. Because in China, a developing country, with the inevitable in order to keep inflation and reform measures in exchange for economic development. And each time to bring on the pain borne by the people. Whether it is mountainous and rural areas of the educated youth are still confused when the reform and opening up a large number of state-owned enterprises have been closed down when a large number of laid-off workers. If they can have some forward-looking, then I think they might stay a little way out for themselves. However, due to over-confident and over-confident that life will not document mutations, so that led to the tragedy of their lives. -
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Some people say that government will not sit idly by white-collar bankruptcy, the Government has of course not. Some things ... how can I say. I think back to the laid-off workers right. Caused so much social unrest. Can do? Today's white-collar tomorrow as it is also the time of bankruptcy. -
and 20 years of reform and opening up, China's rapid economic development take off. But the old system does not completely change. A variety of important industry is still in force is a government monopoly system in operation. Such as: banking, finance, metallurgy, energy, information, transportation, health care, education, land. China's reform and opening up of these things can not be all aspects of reform and opening up. But today, monopoly brought ever more pronounced. -
first is the real estate. As China's legal system is not perfect, especially the field of finance and reform the various mistakes made by the real estate there has been rising. With the increase in real estate and the native population to focus on large cities. So is the new urban workers so-called But this part of the income is mainly used to pay rent, or loan. -
To better understand why 99% of white-collar families will go bankrupt, we must first understand why the prices so high? Where high? Funds work? (Where the white-collar refers to prepare to buy a house buy a house or family.), And development trend of related effects. This article will explain to you in three stages. -
1: cause prices soared, the first factor: bank loans under the open competition. -
In fact, housing prices soaredmain factors for the Government because the people in the mistakes pay. Example, a developer before a bank loan by 10 million to develop a house. If he does not play that bad luck, because all the banks are a system, you owe the money did not also no opportunity to turn around. But China's banking reform on the basis of a hole to open, to the competition between banks so the ICBC, Agricultural Bank of China, Construction Bank, and so on all operate independently. This is a good thing. But the problem is that these banks are not private, but the country. We can imagine. When a developer 10 million from bank loans to the consequences. He only need 5 million to develop a house, then the price increase, then the development of the price of the house according to his standard mortgage loans to 20 million from the Agricultural Bank of China again, and then use that 20 million of 10 million development of a Higher house prices set to come to the construction of 40 million bank mortgage. Is such a crazy snowball lending model. -
house you serve to go out is not important, the key is the price higher, not lower prices. Anyway, the bank's money is not private, so combined with a little clear about President has -
then this result is that house prices do not just climb down! Because they can not fall! A bank loans out money or never come back. This is the government's bank, the government's money! Therefore, in order to block some of this money was to buy the black hole of experts, the media create public opinion began to crazy with a variety of means of coercion of public opinion were to buy a house. -
land resources such as severe stress, do not buy a house in the future can only live in the suburbs Yeah sort of. Cause people had to buy a house. In fact, can not live in this city which was impossible, city residents is a process of replacement of old and new, to go to work to live in the city, the elderly live in rural areas like retirement. As long as the population explosion will not appear white-collar workers do not live downtown can not be the case. Although these media caused a lot of people buy a house, but only so, prices have not ridiculously high as it now is. Then the government made the second mistake. -
2: cause prices soared, the second error: the mortgage with Chinese characteristics. -
mortgage would be a very popular system in the West, is also very appropriate. But this system, once applied to the Chinese a little problem. Because for large institutional. All banks are state, not private. So this juncture it is impossible to credit control is maintained. As long as the document makes sense, people will be able to credit to the article. -
to the first error as soon as possible to ease the funds arising from the black hole. Government began to implement the mortgage system to individual houses. What the United States often give to his wife and the Chinese woman's case to lure people to the mortgage. Indeed it was the mortgage, and it is crazy mortgage. And banks as long as a little They first mortgage a 80 million house, own a 10 million down payment loan from the bank and then 700,000. Then after the house sale to raise prices to 1.8 million. This time they go to relatives or Mom and Dad bought, but also with the way their mortgage down payment from the bank lending 300,000 1.5 million. Then on the matter. They do not how to do the loan? Banks do not accept love received. Anyway, I'm not under contract you can take away the money on the house, we owe two incompatible. -
it in a circle, raise the price of the house several times back to the hands of the government back to the bank. This explains why a lot of new properties beginning of repair was They are not fried gambling house will appreciate. But took the house to clean up banks. -
bank got the house how to do? Are afraid to cut prices. Had to add some value and then sell. So ordinary people are now not even think to buy a house really reasonable price! Even if you bought directly from the hands of developers house might have switched hands several times back to the hands of the banks and developers. To say something now 8000 / level of the house, there are only 2,500 is the price, there are 5500 funds that wrong decisions bring the black hole! That means you are restricted to the hard working backside. -
3: The third question: white-collar families when bankrupt? ? -
we study why the house prices up, again look at the so-called white-collar families in Chinese cities inevitability of bankruptcy. -
first foreign white-collar income is really high, but high value. The Chinese so-called white-collar workers are generally of poor quality. Chinese enterprises serious internal friction. Everyone scorn everyone stubborn. No wonder foreign companies entered the China market began to exclaim: That someone would say: A large amount of bank losses through the hands of a few of the flow of the market. These people began to make aggressive investments in other areas of China. Because they knew that real estate is about to collapse. They do another round of investment boom is rapidly absorb the funds, they invest in the Internet, high-tech investment, investment and entertainment, investment many, many. But at least enough to pay wages to employees or pay the monthly rent on a house for it. Therefore, it is because the rising price of China's urban population has created a relative wages increase. Do not believe you do the math in your average income of urban white-collar workers once paid the monthly housing money, how much will be left to the hands? I think this issue would not bar me wordy. We Mental few. So I can say that once the real estate collapse that followed the collapse of your wages. -
I know there are many, many white-collar workers who have purchased a house. Their thinking is simple: But because your house so what are expensive. You eat, your transportation, tuition expensive, more expensive health care costs! ! ! So the money you pay the room and then the cost of living apart from basically a penny saved is not down, even if the save point also keep up with normal inflation rate. The problem is if you will maintain the status quo, then, in theory, should be fine. You two decades earned money just to make up for the loss of two errors. -
but the problem out here. With WTO5-year grace period end, a large number of foreign communications, banking, health care, insurance, and so companies will have moved into China. That time no one can stop you to deposit money into Citigroup, HSBC deposit. What about that time who is willing to put money in the amount of bad debts so many Chinese state-owned banks? And then how to take measures even if the Government could run, so what will happen when the time is still hard to say. But one thing is certain is that these state-owned Bank of China to the time the pressure will become very large. Loans will be difficult to add on, because banks have no money to credit! At the same time a large number of highly qualified human resources with foreign enterprises to enter the Chinese market will bring a strong impact and the collapse of a large number of existing enterprises and white-collar unemployment. In other words. Once the foreign-funded enterprises to join the competition, China's current 99% of white-collar workers will face employment pressure under the environment! -
and foreign banks once the money started to invest in real estate and accumulated, then normal operation because they are made out of the house so the process will be cheaper, with the inevitable pull of real estate fell sharply. As I said earlier, house prices have fallen, or is followed by the business in your wages! Can you buy a house before the loan will not reduce or reduce the price, so you will be unable to pay high loans. Then your house will take away the bank, your savings will be directly frozen. Therefore, China's future cities may be the biggest white-collar workers and a few decades ago, like the Chinese state-owned enterprise workers. Hard two years, in the end 竹篮打水一场空! -
how to avoid bankruptcy? -
see where you should understand, do not buy a house is a good way to avoid bankruptcy. But I would also like to remind you, in order to push up the property market does not fall, they have a way, it is not advocating people do not buy a man child! You mention, this really little effect. Now who is a port of the first sentence: I am really angry with the strength to curse no. There were flat this week in Baidu post bar Mizuki in the post, said: In China, a land not belonging to sell your house and rented out to you you What is the difference? (Laughs). Not to mention the same property and the bandits were improperly forced evictions of people! This is not simply But since the WTO has indicated that the publishing industry and the media industry in China is still not open. Then public opinion will become a government bailout and developers in the hands of the last trump card. -
So we face a lot of rhetoric in their own time or more than half a brain. Property after a pack of lies we hear more and more, more and more outrageous! For example, there has recently advocated brick home in your price when you do not say: Some people nod? Perhaps for this or have evolved to such a disease can not eat or drink does not wear a father and mother had died not move and will not use the maintenance brick home is probably really is the case. Therefore, we pay attention to vigilance. -
Conclusion: -
ready to buy a house buy a house or have a family of white-collar workers will collapse with the collapse of housing prices, that would be a slow process that occurs. Short as two years or as long as ten years. But this is an irreversible trend. Therefore, China has 99% of urban white-collar workers facing bankruptcy one that is not alarmist! Today you pay the bank money is for the Government for each housing allocation for real estate speculators, fill holes, only a small part of the house is a real money. Tomorrow, a change in the environment, you do not have so much money to fill holes when the market and banks will be kicked back to the home, then for a number of new people to fill. Do not believe? Wait and see chant! - PS: Why do I say that 99% of this number, because according to my understanding, once 99% of the monthly salary of over 5000 people began to buy a house, even 3000,4000 buy. Lovers do not understand what this life will be miserable going to buy. I just feel sad for them. Of course, if you are that 1% of the wise, than to persuade them to save it. Better Together alone. -
Chinese are the four big when -
largest when: real estate -
buy a house mean? Means that you have a house of their own. Yes, you think so, but in China and you can not have this house, you just rented it. Because the house is yours, not your land, just 70 years of land use right (back 70 years from now it is Sino-Japanese War, who have seen the house that time?) House, usually 30 years or so will be met demolition or renovation. That you spend the money to buy a house, but can only be renting the actual results. Of course this is not the worst. The worst is when you find that after decades of fools! A group of hooligans broke into your house with their life savings to buy, with a large split-draw! Then all your belongings out of the garbage outside is still the same, regardless of your pleading, or even still in the newspaper to give you a nail by the notorious families, abuse of public office when you will know what despair! -
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described the Chinese real estate has a well-known joke is written like this: -
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ago, there was a lot to the landlord to find a lot of permanent work, and the landlord to have built a permanent home to a number of building unity, one day, the landlord's advisers on the landlords, said: club, who in recent years the hands of permanent a little money, they live in your house, the monthly pay Zuzi, worth, anyway, they will never afford to live, do not you just sell them the house is called from a tricks - public houses for sale! Tell them the house they never return, you can save them money back in recent years, the landlord said: Yes, how do I rent? Advisor, said: It collects not mistaken, from a Japanese name of children, called the property fee! Landowners to implement quickly, and make a lot of money, long-term employment are the happy ah! -
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a few years, the landlord of the village into town, and the rich more and more, no place to live, advisor to the landlord, said: club, long-term employment are the hands and money in recent years, we give them build a new house, called from a transformation of the old tricks, they handle the money to us, we pulled down the house to build a new, and tell them to buy back, you can sell more than cover some of the others, the landlord has carried out, this time, Some long-term workers are not happy, put to use the landlord's retainers, permanent teeth have had to knock down the pharynx to the stomach, the landlord has made a lot of money. -
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A few years later, the landlord of the village developed into a big city, and the rich more, the landlord of the land more valuable, advisers to the landlord, said: club, we removed these permanent houses, and in this place to build villas, split out those who sold the house to cover the money they can earn a wealthy, landlord, said: how do long-term workers who quit? Advisers said: we give them a little more money, from a monetary settlement called tricks, and then we built our barn next to the house, from a tricks called affordable housing, a carriage road repair them so that they can go over there to buy living room, the landlord said: how do they have enough money? Advisor, said: The banks borrow from our family to them before the year 6 of benefit, but also nothing if the money begets money the Cubs, not any risk, the landlord has carried out, they got the money permanent, affordable housing landlords until now built one, they had to wait in line for permanent house, until now, waiting for it ... ... -
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a result, long-term employment began to make trouble, the landlord a little nervous, hurriedly asked advisers how to do? Advisor, said: They must notify the permanent house to be dropped in price, do not buy, rent to live it, just rented it to them our pen, the result, after so many years, long-term workers have the money all gone, still renters, forever! -
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joke though a bit exaggerated, but in fact it not also true? Some people say that being the case? Why do Chinese people have to buy a house? Crazy to buy? Why? Stupefying education is not the result, as if 60 years, advocating that people must purchase the Big Three: watches, sewing machines, bicycles can be considered successful married a wife. 70 years advocating that people have to buy a new four pieces: televisions, refrigerators, washing machines, telephone equipment is considered to be married and have children to succeed, like, remember the thousands of dollars to install a telephone, but ah (per capita income of less than 200 town ), while tens of thousands of Beijing and Shanghai is more a time, had to take a human number line to buy, and how to buy a house today, the similarity? -
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and today all this shit scholars began a trick to fool the people of the old: the new standard white-collar family, successful people choose X ring X Road new small apartment, X ring X Road, commercial and residential type. After you receive hundreds of thousands, have to charge you a monthly rental (new property fees), bank interest, and various sorts of excuses to raise interest rates, policies, and so on and so forth. In short you do not be afraid to death, not afraid to die you miserable! Ye taken on how happy people, and one hundred on the tire of it? I am really angry and get it all wet! -
second when: Employment -
When someone finally began to sigh: the year when the educated youth, when someone was laid off after no way out, no one can sit-in protest ignored, can only be reduced on the streets also were compiled heroic song, laugh at life, start over the time. Have you ever thought of! They also have the same scenery and white-collar workers today! Their income and status have also let the people around envy? Have you ever thought 20 years later! Like you would like them reduced to the streets, deserted? ! -
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Some people say hey! You do not know unemployment insurance, pension insurance, XX insured it? Oh, I drift in Beijing N years, numerous insurers pay tens of thousands about it, but when unemployment and no one gave me Paoduan Tui Han insurance, but many insurance policies that I have been frozen for paying off, and I just and anger ... ... More than that, you think you really 60 years old to old-age insurance can get it? Out of the sky without money! Today's older people to take the pension is earned us! Today 30-40 years of age usually have several brothers and sisters! Means that today's elderly to get the pension age of 60 is because there are five people for an old man! And our generation after growing old is a person for the two of us old people! Money come from? Did not come! If you are able to live to 90 years is estimated to receive some of the old-age insurance, hey You take care of it. But even so, parents are still mad and their children to a variety of state-owned enterprises in the delivery unit, to me it often examples. A distant relative of my home, find the relationship between drag friends, spent seventy thousand dollars to his son through a public recruitment team sent to the traffic police, dry on the contract system of police. A month to get 800. The third result was competition to brush down. A person crying, I said, a good brush, you earn a lifetime on that class does not return that 70,000 to sleep quickly wash first, and then scrape together some money to change out a small business go! Probably can earn. -
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when I graduated, I led my profanity is holding the money, the Department sent me to XX. I saw the man responsible for recruitment that virtue, could not help the nausea, Made in salary, profanity Yeah, I is not eat or drink until the white dry-back 10-year cost. So I threatened the guy a private, scared that the portly chief no longer afraid to admit I X. I just have to have: away from home. -
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I wanted to not understand? Chinese people ye so foolish? Such a superstitious country word it? Wake up, thinking that the line is not normal? Do the math before the work does not pay to not cost-effective? -
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there are those little white-collar workers are young, it is best to find a job to pay the high point, do you want insurance, medical insurance and Han, and then save up their money most insurance will need it. -
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third-largest when: Education -
a diploma worth? A diploma worth? A diploma worth? Top of the printing costs two dollars a day. A teacher salary? Hey, two students a semester of tuition enough! A class book printing how much? Two students enough! How much rent a class a semester? Hey two students enough. ! Hey! China Education Why the hell you receive so much money! ? -
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Hey! The people are! Why should we be fooled? Because the small ruling class told us admitted scholar was glorious. Oh sorry I am wrong, is it glorious to go to college. Why do people think about but never go to glory? Why honor the University scholar ... ... how not waste! -
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you know who your child is teaching it? In China is generally unable to adapt to society, people would become a teacher, for example. Some time ago I as a project, find a few college students doing master's program. The results are very few people stupid, and not to you to consider, you have to abandon it to work, but also to the files obviously a typo, not to change, so you find even told you seriously, is it not his fault , is that you give is wrong. Little sense of responsibility, an order will not consider whether or to do things and do things one thing and doing things. I was very calm tell them the truth: you must learn to think for others, the results of re-thinking what other people want to do things. Otherwise it can not survive in the community. Results of those few, said: we do not go to the community, we are very good examination results, we are staying in school to a teacher. We had nothing to say the wrong, how do you arrange how we do, do not you arranged for us not to do. This is our dignity and principles. I said: If you go to the gatekeepers, the boss did not arrange your work when you do not lock a locked warehouse it? You scared it? After your child is under the guidance of such a person to learn and grow. You ease it? -
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cohabitation is no wonder that university, truancy, fighting, suicide ... but parents are still willing to spend money to send their children to school, and life is to spend the money. -
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fourth-largest when: buying a car -
Chinese people crazy? Buy a car? Why buy a car? ? ? Of course, you not only have money to spend, you love how to buy how to buy a car buy a house, how oil prices rose anyway, you have enough of money to the demolition of the house you do not feel bad. But most people do? -
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I used to have a colleaguelive North Second Ring Road, where the company Xizhimen. Most probably take the subway to work every hour. May have to buy a second hand Charade,Moncler Jackets UK, daily 8 am start on the road Duzhe, and then moved a little bit of company. Hey, a month parking lot. But she felt his identity to open the car high point. Not to mention open a Charade, open Audi is who I have seen nine of whom three knock worship. In addition to seem a little silly than others outside of their own no other function. -
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Another time, I met the girl was 4,000 a month income, car loans in the plan. So I asked her: little girl, I've got to do business, their work on time, subway and convenient to buy a car do? Like a long time, it is estimated could not think of a reason to say: Sometimes things go to the supermarket to buy it, they feel a taxi near the point is not worth the walk but far from the point. So drive yourself go! I almost did not hear disgusting. You drive to the supermarket to buy instant noodles do not feel sick it? Equipped with cellular phones to Jianla Ji, also Jianla Ji's! Do not think that buying a car can prove anything. -
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example, I now own business, busy day, He walked about 4-5 places, see a lot of customers. But I do not buy a car, why? I hit that car with the move to, kick left, no place to worry about parking, do not worry about hanging a touch, and without fear of being a thief stole a tie, whether rain has hung the wind driver. Bumped a traffic jam if you can get off the subway. More than ten thousand a year will block RMB! Buy a car! Parking fees had more than ten thousand a year! This is not silly it? -
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Do not buy a car do not buy a carsaid, there are countless people who can be mad to go borrow money to buy? Must not be too tragic to die like their future! Buy it, buy a not finished raising interest rates? Oil prices are not crazy? Parking and not expensive? Regret not? On a road car plunges the sale is not also sell the? ? -
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tell you that prices have to rise. Must be the same as oil prices rose and dollars. Hey! You take the old U.S. 1 / 10 of income, support, and others a price of gasoline. I see that you do not have to se. -
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final say, everyone is not stupid, are small by stupefying education deceives the Han. Silly point does not matter, but the thing off your life you still tight with the point, many figured the relationship between the economic interests of plan! Do not the end, real estate have fallen, oil price rise, the money to pay the rest of my life took a diploma or not do what what, for decades to pay exorbitant taxes and levies also what what benefits do not. You can not just spread loss of hundreds of thousands. -
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what was said? Oh no way, can not live without a car you, good bus crowded ah. I said, all is vanity educated fools doing strange. You look at me, just rent a house to live more than a thousand pieces a month, it costs the equivalent of some people's property. If you want to get married I can afford to 3-4 thousand of rent, furniture, refurbished should be full. Which also convenient where I live. Do not want to move on long-term lease. Also a kind and pay the property charges. Also in vain province of the banks loans, interest, down a lot. Something hit the car, right on the subway, a year ten thousand days, and also saved a garage, parking fees, fines pile, oil prices rose 10 also Lehe, do not delay. I did not finish college and ran away, while the market of self-study while planning to run their own business, do not they also can enter the foreign-funded enterprises, managers of listed companies to do it? Also save the tens of thousands of tuition to. -
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course, some people will say: You do not even have a house to buy, specify get married. I thought to myself: I do not, you think you have ah? Some people say that renting is not worth -
book review:
emotionally! I had only the original space, but after reading this article, there was indeed very touching to turn up.
Lang is more respected, his macro-economic, always sharp and to express their own point of view, different point of view. While I agree with his views, but also the evil.
worth pondering this topic today because I am also referring to a social group.
the face of such economic and living environment, I also hold the government criticized the attitude. This is kind of a government? A Real estate is the head of China's economic power train, is virtual real estate, is also true of the Chinese economy, a bubble will ultimately burst.
our prices for today's high, then spit saliva to open business at the same time, it should spit to ZF. ZF our pockets is China's state-owned land, the land of China is the ZF in the price of China's current land development policy is implemented in the tender system, the popular talk is the highest bidder. Ever since created,Moncler Jackets UK, Shenzhen to the king, the king of Nanjing. Expensive land, open business houses can cheap? ZF mastered the core ---- premium prices.
ZF another measure on the adoption of public opinion, advocate people buy a house. Ever since, there, and we have pride in their own house. Crowded inside to rural county, county-level city crowded to the ground, ground-level city crowded to the front-line second-tier cities, finally balance the rural poor in China and non-farm population. But these people could have been a place to live, they could have behaved, but not, ZF of public opinion they are high enough to buy that empty room.
after all, we are fighting for their life savings, or two generations of savings to buy a ridiculously high price of this house. The value of this excess was gone? The first is the ZF, the second is the developer. This is kind of a ZF, a We are to a house, paid the two generations of labor for the ZF re-creation of value, risk. Created a era of wealthy and poor countries. We do not need such an era, what we need is a wealthy and rich era.
China's financial environment is quite terrible, the people ten years ago that the mortgage and credit card is incredible. But look now. At least in the real estate market, ZF is no policy as there are too many. I have a friend, the annual income of about 7-8W, but he was I am surprised, how much risk he should take it? On average, he was around 6,000 a month income also. Although half of the house the car down payment is borrowed, a total of 10 million. But a month mortgage the house to 2500, car 1800. Also 4300 a month down there property costs, car costs. Month, down almost no surplus. This is the how much risk? This highly competitive in Shenzhen city, is no guarantee of employment, they might have lost their jobs tomorrow are normal. Once there is no stable income, he is facing bankruptcy. And there are 10 million of debt outstanding.
this article, I do not agree with the point of view there. I think that China's real estate in the next decade will not be stretched plate. Lang's view is that the involvement of foreign financial industry, will inevitably lead to the demise of China's real estate market.
my opinion, the involvement of foreign financial bank, will the price of lower prices to some extent, but not within a decade, the Chinese real estate lead burst. Because the core of China's real estate market mechanism does not change within a decade, it is supply and demand mechanism. In the current real estate market, demand is far greater than supply, which is far more than people who buy a house out of the house currently in development. (Caused by ZF public opinion, we would have room to live, it may have to buy a house) for now, if the price is now 10,000, it may be the result, just a foreign intervention, just I and the Chinese market competition, prices soon fell to 5,000, but many around the corner behind the eyes staring at the figure, people will immediately rush home buyers to buy more than one person, it is possible to float prices rose to 8,000 . So the end result is that foreign intervention, resulting in China's housing prices fell to 8,000 from 10,000.
Lang indicates that Chinese white-collar workers ---- is what we will be bankrupt, this conclusion I agree. But I do not agree in 2-10 years, perhaps longer.
Then I want thehow to avoid it.
one, determined not to home buyers in Shenzhen, Shenzhen's housing prices ridiculously high. For now, off the average income level is 4,000, while the average price has reached 20,000. Buy a small apartment 50 level, but also 100 million. Even if two people for a couple suite, which is a monthly family income of 8,000, but also to eat or drink for 12 years and a half before they can supply finished. Can not eat or drink, as well as the education of children, elderly support, these patients evil dead big factors are taken into account. Estimated that two people spend their whole lives in a set of 50 levels to go inside the house.
two, back to the mainland home home, determined not to take too much risk. Jian's current prices $ 35 a flat,Moncler Jackets UK, buy a house of 80 square requires 28 million. 140 000 if you do not have no shot. Because in addition, for the room than there are children education, elderly support is equally important. There are two things first response capabilities, and then consider the house. Built house in his hometown as much as possible, so you can avoid a lot of risk.
Third, as far as possible a person's accounts are kept in rural areas, to hold one-third of an acre of land. No matter, how the economy develops, how to burst, and how the economic crisis in 30 years cycle. I have my own basic material conditions of life is always good.
Fourth, try to create their own more fixed assets, of course, is not the premise of risk. Because any time, always the preservation of fixed assets. Can be considered the gold, gold is never hard currency depreciation.
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